Friday, August 13, 2010

Blackberry in the Philippines

Blackberry has been around in the Philippines for a while. However, like everywhere else, the big opportunity in smartphones is with Android. RIM itself is rumored to be getting ready to enter the Android market with its BlackPad iPad-killer-wannabe.

The Pinoy is culturally more Western oriented than the average Thai, Malay, and ethnic Chinese of Southeast Asia.

A jejemon is the tech aware (if not savvy) evolution of the online CD-class Filipino. Culturally, he is closer to the average American than his regional neighbors in the Far East. He and his ilk form a significant subset of the pervasive 95+% prepaid market.

Jejemons aspire for the things they see the high-brow flaunting at the malls and the local Starbucks. These latter members of the AB market, in their turn, whip out their Macs, iPhones, and iPads... or, at least, shout it out on Facebook (#8, all 14.6 million of them) and Twitter.

So, the upwardly mobile young Pinoy is Apple-crazy. Blackberries are for their dads & moms (only if dad has no choice at the office, and/or only if mom is an executive herself). Antennagate notwithstanding, the iPhone 4 and iPad will be surefire hits when they officially hit Philippine shores.

Even then, how many iPads, iPhones, and iPod Touches do you see everyday in Manila? Not a whole lot.

Nokia continues to dominate the dumbphone market, while there are no clear smartphone leaders around. You are as likely to see Nokias as iPhones, Blackberries, Sony Ericssons, Samsungs, Motorolas, and... yes, HTCs while walking around Greenbelt.

Middle of last year, we predicted the rise of Android, Moblin, and Google Wave on the back of nomadic and mobile social networking. Moblin has been subsumed into MeeGo as Nokia dumped its own Maemo when it jumped into bed with Intel. Google Wave, however, is on life support, as of this writing.

Fearless forecast: Android has already overtaken Apple's iOS in global sales, and is gunning for Blackberry OS's throat. Symbian will decline, and Windows Phone 7 will not have much of a Windows Mobile base to speak of from which to take off. HP bought Palm intending to make WebOS ubiquitous.

Android will be top dog, followed by Blackberry or Apple. Symbian fades to irrelevance as Windows Phone 7 tries to be the next-big-thing. HP isn't Apple, and WebOS will not be a significant threat, at least not in the smartphone space.

Has or will Blackberry break out in the Philippines? Not a Chinaman's chance, unfortunately. That alarming Nielsen trend above is likely to hold true for the Philippines as well.

The era of the mobile phone subsidy in the Philippines is long past. Smartphones will remain the purview of the rich and the wannabes, who, in turn, have Apples in their eyes. Blackberries are way too expensive and, worse, aren't hip enough to bother with.

So, no, Research In Motion is way too optimistic about their prospects in the Philippines.

Price IS a barrier, especially since the carriers won't lift much of a finger for RIM's sake. In the Philippines, the era of iPhone-like subsidies for mobile web devices is dead even before it starts, unless you are Apple... maybe.

Friday, January 29, 2010

What's wrong with the iPad?

We've been reading all the tech press has been saying since Steve's announcement, and most are lambasting Apple for the iPad.

But... we think it'll follow the iPhone, take-up and development-wise. The first gen would still be successful, even with all its deficiencies (and especially against tablet PCs, historically).

Multi-tasking, screen res other than 1024x768 (say, 1366x768; ok, maybe not, as this may require denser pixels), and Adobe Flash support could all be forthcoming on iPhone OS 4.0, maybe as soon as June. With these, all those complaints about single tasking, wide screen displays, and playing Farmville go away.

Wait for 2G and 3G iPad (gen, not the underlying mobile tech), where dual-core CPUs, better GPUs, cameras, HDMI, and other hardware get fixed. These things came later on the iPhone (except dual-core and HDMI, so far), so expect the same on the iPad.

What Steve has done on the iPhone, he's repeating on the iPad. Get it out the door quick with some real good stuff, hunker down to absorb all the flak for things left out (for reasons of price or tech not up-to-snuff yet), and fix the latter as price, tech, and time allow.

Having said all this, have you seen the video? The calendar looks great. E-mail looks great. The iBook Store looks great. That driving game demo looks awesome.

Here's unsolicited advise for Apple. Give us an iPad Pro ASAP. Give us dual-core ARM Cortex A9 and Tegra 2-class graphics, and we have a killer mobile gaming console right there. With these specs, who cares if battery life drops to 3-4 hours?!

Just imagine the kinds of games we can play. Put virtual triggers on the left and right sides of the LCD, let the accelerometer move the crosshair around, and you have a real cool FPS. iPad Counter-Strike, anyone?